The probability that Bitcoin will reach $20,000 by the end of the year is only 9%

The Bitcoin options market (BTC), dominated mainly by Deribit and CME, foresees a 9% chance that the cryptocurrency price will reach $20,000 by the end of the year.

Given Bitcoin’s tendency to achieve significant growth only about 6-8 months after halving activation, professional traders‘ opinion of BTC’s medium-term performance remains relatively cautious.

Short-Term Bullish Option Market

As for the short term, numerous traders from both Deribit and CME have expressed strong optimism about BTC.

According to Ecoinometrics data, the CME’s Bitcoin options exchange recorded 22 calls per put. In other words, for every person who sold BTC, 22 bought it.

This optimism about Bitcoin’s short-term performance is probably related to the fact that the cryptocurrency price has repeatedly tested the resistance at $10,000.

When a key price is tested three or four times in a row, whether it is a support or resistance, the chances of that level being breached increase. In the last eleven days, buy ripple coin on Bitcoin Circuit, Bitcoin Trader move money between wallets, Immediate Edge tax id number, buy ripple coin Bitcoin Billionaire, Bitcoin Revolution 2 charges, how to protect Bitcoin Era account, Bitcoin Evolution 9th floor 107 cheapside london, Bitcoin Code tablet uses in hindi, market cap Bitcoin Profit, how to buy bitcoin instantly The News Spy has tested the $10,000 five times: the resistance has weakened quite a bit.

Option traders, most of whom are in this profession, therefore expect the $10,000 to be exceeded imminently.

Why are traders not bullish even in the long term?

The price of Bitcoin tends to move in cycles. It has long been assumed that these fluctuations are due to whale stocks, which buy and sell the cryptocurrency en masse when it reaches particularly low or high values. Due to this unpredictability, option traders are not willing to bet on Bitcoin even in the medium and long term.

As a result of previous halving, the Bitcoin rally only started after 6-8 months, so it is unlikely that the price will reach $20,000 by the end of 2020.

That said, many technical factors appear to be extremely positive. For example, Bitcoin is about to get the seventh golden cross of its life: it will be enough that the price will remain above $9,500 in the coming days.

In addition, the weekly chart shows quite bullish data: various momentum oscillators indicate that the growth could extend to the range between $10,000 and $11,000.

Both the golden cross and the weekly MACD are short-term indicators, which would explain why there is so much optimism in the options market.